EM Daily:EM Assets into UK Referendum
摘要: TheUKReferendumremainsthemaindriverwithmarketimpacttodissipatewithoffsettingaccommodation.IntermsofF
The UK Referendum remains the main driver with market impact to dissipate with offsetting accommodation. In terms of FX, in case of a "remain" vote, we expect a significant risk rally with PLN the likely outperformer and recommend buying PLN upside options. We also expect BRL to outperform - funded in CLP to mitigate China risks. In case of "exit", we like being long USD/HUF and USD/MXN - the favored proxy-hedge - but with risk of intervention under extreme moves. RUB can perform well regardless of the outcome. On rates, EMEA bonds have held up reasonably with pressure concentrated in FX hedging rather than local selling. We favor carry while limiting exposure to Europe via Long Israel vs. Czech, Hungary vs. Poland and Russia vs. Turkey. In case of "leave", we favor receivers in fwd starting IRS in Israel while in case of "remain", we see room for South African bonds to outperform. "Leave" should lead to bear flatteners/spread wideners in Mexico and bear steepeners/spread wideners in Brazil and Peru.
remain,Incaseof,TheUKReferendumremainsthemaindriverwithmarketimp,IntermsofFX,incaseofa








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