So, here's the problem. Exports aren't firing up. That's a problem for Asia: withlocal demand currently sputtering and debt saturation likely curbing future upside,stronger exports would help cushion growth. Optimists, of course, argue that itis only a matter of time before shipments bounce back. In this view, we are simplyexperiencing a cyclical downturn – if rather a lengthy one – that will self-correctin due course. But here is another interpretation: it is not simply weak demandthat's weighing on Asian trade, but structural, and thus far more persistent, factors.

　　A recovery in the West, therefore, may not lift exports by as much as in previousdecades. The relationship has changed. Why? A number of reasons come to mind.

　　For example, the lack of significant trade liberalization in recent years means thatthe benefits of earlier such rounds have been exhausted. Also, spending in theWest may have shifted away from the types of goods made in Asia (for example,smartphones) to things produced locally (like smartphone apps). All this suggeststhat a swift export rebound isn't around the corner. Those economies especiallydependent on external demand, like Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, and HongKong, may thus find things a little challenging for a while.